Fantasy do-over: Auditing results from an in-season experts draft

Source: Roto Arcade by Andy Behrens

At the risk of tearing down the entire "fantasy expert" scam, we begin today with an admission: Occasionally, fantasy gurus get stuff wrong.

It's rare, but it happens. Back in March, it's possible that some of us led you to believe Roy Halladay was salvageable and that Adam Dunn was not terrible at baseball. We apologize for these misunderstandings.

With six weeks of MLB data in the books, it's time to reassess the player pool. We've assembled a group of 10 experts for an in-season baseball draft. The league settings are fairly standard: 5x5, mixed player pool, CI & MI, head-to-head, weekly lineups. Nothing too exotic.

[You can still own Paul Goldschmidt! It's not too late! Sign-up today for

Fantasy Baseball Sleeper Picks – Hitting

Source: Fantasy Baseball Dugout by BeeZee

If you play season-long, weekly, or daily fantasy sports, it is important to find sleeper picks. Here are our top sleeper picks for hitting for fantasy baseball, including tips for daily fantasy sports. But act now, before somebody else picks these sleeper picks up.

Dexter Fowler – OF, Colorado Rockies  

Fowler had seven HR, 10 RBI and 13 runs in his first 14 games.  Fowler’s career high in HR is 13, set last season. He hit 11 of the 13 before the All-Star break.  While Fowler, now 27, stole 27 bases in 2009, he has not stolen more than 13 in a season since. Fowler hit .300 in 2012 (.332 at

Shuffle Up: Carlos Gomez, the real deal

Source: Roto Arcade by Scott Pianowski

When it comes to fake baseball, the outfield is where the fun is. The first couple of rounds will always include some of these stat-grabbing giants, and yet the waiver wire in an average mixer consistently offers something for the discerning shopper. Add it all up and there's a lot to digest.

The prices you see in this piece are roughly how I rank the roto-eligible outfielders going forward. What we've seen to this point is merely an audition; if you want a list of the top players to this point, there are plenty of places you can access that.

Don't obsess over the prices in a vacuum: what really matters is how the players relate to one another. Assume a 5x5 scoring format, as always, and players at the same price

Shuffle Up: Carlos Gomez, the read deal

Source: Roto Arcade by Scott Pianowski

When it comes to fake baseball, the outfield is where the fun is. The first couple of rounds will always include some of these stat-grabbing giants, and yet the waiver wire in an average mixer consistently offers something for the discerning shopper. Add it all up and there's a lot to digest.

The prices you see in this piece are roughly how I rank the roto-eligible outfielders going forward. What we've seen to this point is merely an audition; if you want a list of the top players to this point, there are plenty of places you can access that.

Don't obsess over the prices in a vacuum: what really matters is how the players relate to one another. Assume a 5x5 scoring format, as always, and players at the same price

Dexter Fowler (hip) hopes to return Saturday - Dexter Fowler | COL

Source: Rotoworld Baseball

Dexter Fowler (hip) hopes to return to the Rockies' lineup Saturday.

Dexter Fowler: Hip Flexor Injury

Source: RotoWire.com MLB

Dexter Fowler: Fowler left Friday night's game in the fourth inning with a hip flexor injury. Visit RotoWire.com for more analysis on this update.

Fowler day-to-day with hip flexor soreness - Dexter Fowler | COL

Source: Rotoworld Baseball

Dexter Fowler was diagnosed with right hip flexor soreness and is considered day-to-day.

Fowler leaves game early with apparent injury - Dexter Fowler | COL

Source: Rotoworld Baseball

Dexter Fowler has been removed from Friday's game against the Rays with an apparent injury.

The Razzball Podcast — The One Where We Hit On Some Hitters (Non-Sexually; Except For Rudy With Bryce Harper)

Source: Razzball by grey@razzball.com (Grey Albright)

Rudy loves him some Bryce Harper, but don't we all (now)? The question on March 20th from Brandon Funston was, "(You picked) Bryce Harper, Round 1, Pick 13 … That's about 20 picks higher than the brilliant (sic) minds that compose the Yahoo! ADP. Would you please tell our constituents why they are selling Boy Wonder short? What is a realistic best-case roto line for Harper in '13?" Besides Harper, our team in F&F looks putrid right now, so there's that. So There's That, Part II: There's More; Our ERA is at a one and WHIP is at a one due to Marmol and Axford crapping the bed, then asking us to sleep in said bed, but we own Verlander, so we should get better. In the podcast, Rudy goes over where he'd draft Harper now if he had

Production Levels and Dexter Fowler

Source: Fake Teams by Craig Goldstein

Last week Ray asked me to take a look at Dexter Fowler considering the start he's gotten off to. What I did was take his current stats and make a 162 game average out of them, and then start reducing from there. Obviously the home run pace is more than one can expect out of Fowler, but there's also the chance that he can pick up some value with extra stolen bases. Hopefully this look at what he can provide even with a reduction in his current onpace numbers can help you decide if you want to sell high on him. Again, I'd guess he underperform even the 60% home run numbers, but the other stats could be more at the 80%

Workshop: What’s the play on Dexter Fowler?

Source: Roto Arcade by Scott Pianowski

I don't blame anyone who listed Dexter Fowler on their breakout list before the season. Fowler was coming off a career-best 2012 campaign (.300/.369/.474), he has a mix of power and speed (at least theoretically), he's entering his Age-27 year, and he plays half of his games in the ultimate hitting paradise. There's all sorts of plausible upside here.

Most Yahoo! drafters didn't go after Fowler aggressively in March, as it turns out. His ADP was a modest 218.7, the 56th outfielder off the board. Ben Revere, on average, went three rounds in front of Fowler. Andre Ethier flew off the board five rounds earlier.

No one really wants to make fundamental ranking changes through

Fowler hits seventh home run in win over Mets - Dexter Fowler | COL

Source: Rotoworld Baseball

Dexter Fowler smoked his seventh home run of the season Thursday against the Mets.

Fantasy Baseball: Head-to-Head Risers and Fallers for Week 3

Source: Fake Teams by Alex Kantecki

Risers

Dexter Fowler

Chances are, in 10- or 12-team mixed leagues, Fowler wasn't drafted. I don't own the Rockies lanky center fielder anywhere because there's usually another owner willing to scoop up a fast start quicker than me. In Fowler's case, I wish I had. So far, the 27-year old is hitting .298/.389/.723 with a major league best second-best six home runs in 47 at-bats. I hate the word breakout, as any player with a fast start automatically gets labeled as a breakout candidate, but I think that's a fair assessment (albeit an early one) in the case of Fowler. Part of Fowler's

Dexter Fowler (foot) not in Tuesday's lineup - Dexter Fowler | COL

Source: Rotoworld Baseball

Dexter Fowler is out of the lineup for the first game of Tuesday's doubleheader against the Mets due to a sore left foot.

Mostly MLB Notes: The Matt Harvey Show

Source: Roto Arcade by Dalton Del Don

I’m not sure what more can be said about Matt Harvey at this point, but I’ll go ahead and continue to pile on the praise. The guy has allowed six hits over 22.0 innings this season. Six! Thanks to a 0.82 ERA and a decent 0.55 WHIP, he’s been the No. 1 ranked fantasy player so far. Harvey’s control still isn’t great, as he’s walked multiple batters in all three of his outings (and he had a 3.93 BB/9 rate across Triple-A and with the Mets last year), but his stuff is among the nastiest in the league already. Harvey’s average fastball velocity (94.3 mph) has been the fourth-highest among all starters this season, while his slider (88.6 mph) has easily been the fastest (next highest is Madison

Week That Was: The Buck Will Stop Here (soon)

Source: Rotoworld Baseball Articles

John Buck's career 10 days and Dexter Fowler's continued prowess highlight this week's Week That Was.

Over/Under: Is this the year Fowler finally keeps pace?

Source: Roto Arcade by Brad Evans

Fantasy is a speculative game. Predict the future, and you look like a genius. Don't, and you're painfully human. Gazing into the crystal ball, here's our view on 10 intriguing over/unders.

Dexter Fowler, out to a scorching start launching four homers in just under 40 at-bats, combined HRs/SBs on season 37.5

Scott – I have a handful of Fowler shares this year, so my heart wants to push this number up. But UNDER is the logical call; I don't want to bet on the come when it's not warranted. Road games are generally an issue for the Rockies (the ball simply doesn't break as much in the mile-high air), and Fowler's never learned the craft of base stealing (a shame given his raw

NL-Only fantasy thoughts: Drafting young pitching

Source: Fake Teams by Ray Guilfoyle

This week's NL-only fantasy thoughts will be a mix of some NL only discussion as well as details from my NL-only auction keeper league draft from Sunday. I will start out with my thoughts on a few players that appear to be in the midst of having a break out season.

Is Dexter Fowler having a breakout season?

Last offseason we read where Fowler had bulked up in an attempt to stay stronger throughout the season and to add a little power to his game. He responded by hitting 13 home runs last season, more than doubling the five home runs he hit in 2011. His extra base hit total actually dropped from 55 in 2011 to 42 last season, yet his SLG and ISO

Week That Was: Dexter Killing It in 2013

Source: Rotoworld Baseball Articles

Dexter Fowler and Chris Davis showing early season greatness and a quick review of 42 highlight the first Week That Was of 2013.

Week That Was: Dexter Killing It in 2103

Source: Rotoworld Baseball Articles

Dexter Fowler and Chris Davis showing early season greatness and a quick review of 42 highlight the first Week That Was of 2103.

What’s scarier than John Axford? John Axford with 4 or 5 fewer mph, that’s what

Source: Roto Arcade by Andy Behrens

Right here at the top, we should note that the first pitch John Axford threw in his 2013 debut was a 96 mph fastball to Chris Nelson.

Axford was consistently throwing 94-96 in the opener against Colorado, which is essentially where you'd expect him to be on any given day. Last season, the velocity on his average fastball was 96.2 mph. He struck out three of the four hitters he faced in his first appearance this year. The one batter he didn't punch out, Dexter Fowler, lined a homer to right off a 95 mph fastball.

So, basically, John Axford had a typical John Axford outing in Monday's opener. No real surprises. We're talking about a hard-thrower who piles up Ks, yet struggles with wildness and homer-control. That's

Closing Time: Roy Halladay has a short, strange night, John Axford implodes, and Leyland is burned by committee

Source: Roto Arcade by Andy Behrens

If all you knew about Roy Halladay’s night was that he struck out nine batters while reaching 92 mph on the radar gun, then you’d probably say he pitched well. Maybe you’d regret not drafting him in any leagues.

But even with the nine Ks, Halladay’s evening was complicated and often painful. He recorded only 10 outs against the Braves, failing to escape the fourth inning. He allowed three walks, six hits, two bombs and five earned runs. Justin Upton destroyed a poorly placed fastball in the

Closing Time: Roy Halladay has a short, strange night, John Axford implodes, and Leyland burned by committee

Source: Roto Arcade by Andy Behrens

If all you knew about Roy Halladay’s night was that he struck out nine batters while reaching 92 mph on the radar gun, then you’d probably say he pitched well. Maybe you’d regret not drafting him in any leagues.

But even with the nine Ks, Halladay’s evening was complicated and often painful. He recorded only 10 outs against the Braves, failing to escape the fourth inning. He allowed three walks, six hits, two bombs and five earned runs. Justin Upton destroyed a poorly placed fastball in the first, accounting for two of the early runs. Four batters later, Juan Francisco

Shuffle Up: Choose your sophomore, Mike Trout vs. Bryce Harper

Source: Roto Arcade by Scott Pianowski

The outfield is the fun place to go shopping in fantasy baseball. Power, sure, you'll find it here. Plenty of guys run. A few players do everything. And the two most exciting young position players in the game happen to reside here, too. Everyone likes picking out their outfield.

The goal today is to rank all the mixed-league worthy outfielders going forward in 5x5 fantasy value, 2013 only. Don't read too much into the dollar values in a vacuum - they're merely used as a tool to compare players. And when commodities share the same price, they're considered even. (Players on the DL and minor-league prospects are not eligible for ranking.)

I reserve the right to tweak this list as the day goes along,

John Axford: Blown Save In Opener

Source: RotoWire.com MLB

John Axford: Axford blew his first save opportunity of the season by allowing a solo homer to Dexter Fowler on Monday afternoon. Visit RotoWire.com for more analysis on this update.

Fantasy Baseball 2013: The Love List

Source: Roto Arcade by Scott Pianowski

The snarky comments will have to wait for another day. The red pens won't come out of the desk drawer today. It's time to get shiny, happy and target-driven on blog, unveiling a handful of players we can't wait to point-and-click on. Make sure you've got these guys queued up.

The 2013 Love List will keep us together. Who wants to ride shotgun?

[Baseball 2013 from Yahoo! Fantasy Sports: Join a league today!]

In the

What’s In My Wallet, 2013: Up Goes Todd Frazier

Source: Roto Arcade by Scott Pianowski

The first thing to know about this exercise is that it's mostly out of context. I'm in a bunch of leagues every year (too many, really, but it's a labor of love) and they come from all angles. Mixed leagues. Mono leagues. Keeper leagues (well, one). Redraft leagues. Drafts and auctions, with the player-penetration level constantly changing.

At this time of year I like to look back (though I'm not done drafting) and see what players I've landed more than once. Repeated ownership generally means I like a player, at least more than my opponents do - but it's obviously a lot more complicated than that. And sometimes I find myself missing on players I actually do like a lot because of circumstances I can't really control (I only have

2013 Livin’ The Fantasy Draft

Source: Baseball Guys by Ray Flowers

And the fantasy baseball drafts just keep on coming… Kay Adams and I hosted the Livin’ the Fantasy Draft for SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM87). The league consisted of myself, Kay, Kyle Elfrink, two producers (Drew Phelps and Phil Backert), and six listeners (one was unable to make it). That means we had a shallow 11 team, mixed league draft that we took part in. I had the #2 selection in the draft, and here is how my

Value-Added

Source: Fake Teams by FantasyNinja8

The fantasy baseball community refers to a standard league as one that uses the following ten categories: Runs, Home Runs, RBIs, Stolen Bases and Batting Average for hitters; Wins, Strikeouts, Saves, ERA and WHIP for pitchers. Not all leagues, however, use those categories. I'm going to take a look at some surprising players who get a boost in leagues that count different categories.

On Base Percentage

Dexter Fowler, OF, Colorado Rockies

Fowler has a really taken to his role of leadoff hitter and table-setter for the Rockies. He's increased his walk rate each of the

Fantasy Baseball: Player Volatility

Source: Baseball Guys by Ray Flowers

Sometimes people miss the point. We’re all guilty of this (even the great Oracle isn’t always understanding of everything that is presented to him). In this piece I thought I would try to explain a few things that might be missed when people look at players and try to discern what is going on with their value.

There is no certainty in baseball. Yes

ADP Analysis of the Mock Draft Army's First Draft -- Part 2

Source: RotoSynthesis

For those of you just joining our program, allow me to re-direct you to the article from Wednesday where we introduced you to the Mock Draft Army, a rotating group of fantasy baseball writers looking to provide you with legitimate mock drafts to help you in your draft prep. The Army had its first draft last Tuesday, a 28-round, standard 5x5 mixed league draft consisting of seven writers and five readers and we started to bring you some ADP analysis as a way to understand some of the rising and falling trends we’ve been witnessing over the last several weeks.

In that piece, we covered most of the first half of the draft – two four-round blocks to be exact. We compared those draft numbers with the ADP

Fantasy baseball 2013 team previews: Colorado Rockies

Source: SI.com

Last season may have been an ugly one in Denver, but if I had to bet on one team to pull off an Orioles- or A's-style unexpected run to the playoffs in 2013, my money is on the Rockies (and since I'll be in Vegas a week before the baseball season starts, that might not be just a figure of speech). They have two studs in Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki, both do-it-all offensive players -- Dexter Fowler gives them speed and on-base skills at the top of the order, and Michael Cuddyer, Wilin Rosario and Tyler Colvin provide power through the middle. Quietly, this has the potential to be one of the better offenses in the entire National League.

K-BAD – 2013: Part III, BBGuys Team

Source: Baseball Guys by Ray Flowers

The fellas over over at KFFL.com have a fantasy baseball league nicknamed K-BAD, for Baseball Analysis Draft, and for the 5th straight year I’m honored to have been asked to participate (the proceeding link takes you to an analysis by every participant on the league). In Part III of this three part review I’ll break down how my squad turned out.

C:

K-BAD – 2013: Part I, Rounds 1-14

Source: Baseball Guys by Ray Flowers

For the fifth straight year I was invited to play in an expert’s league by the folks over at KFFL.com (you can click on the link to see how everyone else in the draft evaluated their own selections). Nicknamed K-BAD, for Baseball Analysis Draft, the league pits 11 of the top minds in the game against one flunky (that would be your truly). I thought I would give my analysis

2013 Colorado Rockies projected lineup: A chance for Josh Rutledge to really break out

Source: Fake Teams by Kenneth Arthur

It was a relatively young Rockies team that went to the World Series in 2007, and possibly an even younger and more talented team that won a franchise-high 92 games in 2009. Troy Tulowitzki, a leader then at age 24, plus Chris Iannetta, Ian Stewart, Seth Smith, Dexter Fowler,

2013 Rankings: Outfielders

Source: Fantasy Baseball 365

You can find a bit of everything in the outfield. There are players who contribute across the board, and others who make waves in single categories. There are established veterans with lengthy track records, and young players on the cusp of becoming superstars. Oh, and the position is also home to two players who are going one and two overall in many fantasy drafts.

Rank First Name Last

Rockies sign Fowler to two-year, $11.6M deal - Dexter Fowler | COL

Source: Rotoworld Baseball

Rockies and OF Dexter Fowler avoided arbitration by agreeing to a two-year, $11.6 million contract.

Rockies sign Dexter Fowler to two-year deal - Dexter Fowler | COL

Source: Rotoworld Baseball

Rockies and OF Dexter Fowler avoided arbitration by agreeing to a two-year contract.

Tyler Colvin (OF/1B-COL)

Source: TG Fantasy Baseball

Rockies | Four players going to arbitration. Colorado Rockies OF's Tyler Colvin Dexter Fowler, SP Jhoulys Chacin and SS Jonathan Herrera were ... Source: http://www.kffl.com

Pressing Questions: The Colorado Rockies

Source: Roto Arcade by Brad Evans

Traditional concerns cropped up for the Rockies last season, issues which quickly turned the season sour. Despite finishing well inside the top-10 in several offensive categories, including team BA, slugging and runs scored, Colorado’s dreadful pitching staff restricted its ability to win. Frankly, it was a laughing stock, generously serving up hitters grapefruit-sized pitches on a silver platter. Purple-clad hurlers combined for an awful 5.22 ERA and 1.55 WHIP (5.97, 1.60 at home). Management could’ve injected Coors Field’s dampened balls with led and it wouldn’t have mattered.

Largely devoid of pitching talent equipped to compete in such a harsh environment, the Rockies were doomed from the start. Jorge

Dexter Fowler: The Improvement Is Real

Source: Fake Teams by Ray Guilfoyle

When going through the rankings process, some hitters are tough to rank, and there can be many reasons for the difficulty encountered. One, the player may be someone you have been down on for some time, or two, the player had a breakout season and you are trying to figure out whether the breakout was real or not. Both come into play, for me, when ranking Rockies center fielder Dexter Fowler.

Fowler had his best year as a major leaguer in 2012, finally reaching the potential many projected for him when he was a prospect. Fowler hit .300-.389-.474 with 13 HRs, 72 runs, 53 RBI and 12 stolen bases in

Phils have discussed deal for Dexter Fowler - Dexter Fowler | COL

Source: Rotoworld Baseball

Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com reports that the Phillies have talked to the Rockies about a trade for Dexter Fowler.

Player Profile: Freddie Freeman

Source: Baseball Guys by Ray Flowers

Freddie Freeman, the Braves’ first baseman, had a solid second season. In fact, “solid” may not quite be the correct adjective to use when describing his 2012 efforts. Some will see the drop in batting average and the nearly identical OPS and worry that he didn’t take a step forward in Year II. Some will remember the constant physical issues that hindered him included a couple of week span where his vision became an issue. I on the other hand think the seeds are

Leonys Martin, 2013 Fantasy Outlook

Source: Razzball by grey@razzball.com (Grey Albright)

Leonys Martin said this recently in an interview, “I’m gonna be 25 years old in March.   In Triple-A last year, I hit 12 homers, stole 10 bases and hit for a .359 average in 231 at-bats while rocking a .422 OBP.  My mother, Martina, always said, ‘Leonys, modesty isn’t the best policy, it’s the only policy, except for my policy regarding our dining room which is no shoes, no shirt, no service.’  But if I, Leonys Martin the Great, may be so bold, I’m a solid center fielder and ready for the majors.  I have nothing left to prove in the minors.  I could get double digit homers and steals in 2013 in the minors, too, but instead I’d like to play for my major league club, the Rangers.  I hear Josh

2012 Positional Review – Outfield

Source: Baseball Guys by Ray Flowers

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the

Review: NL LABR

Source: Baseball Guys by Ray Flowers

The worst team of all-time.

The worst ever drafted.

How could I possibly be considered an expert drafting this team?

I heard some variance of the above in emails, in tweets, on my show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. I heard it from everyone. E V E R Y O N E. I left money on the table (a mistake I owned up to in my review of the draft). I had a

Review: Fanball & Sirius Show League

Source: Baseball Guys by Ray Flowers

Two more leagues to review. And yes, the results of these final two leagues was much better than the majority of my efforts that I’ve been detailing over the past week.

FANBALL LEAGUE

For those of you who haven’t been following my work for years, and shame on you if you haven’t, I used to work at Fanball. When the company was closed I took up my mantle as a Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio employee, something that I will discuss further when

Review: K-BAD

Source: Baseball Guys by Ray Flowers

The folks over at KFFL.com have been gracious enough to invite me to participate in KFFL’s Baseball Analysis Draft (K-BAD) the last couple of years. When you see how my team performed no wonder they invited me. I’m apparently an easy mark.

Ryan Doumit was great (.275-18-75). Not so much Kurt

MLB: The Final Friday

Source: Baseball Guys by Ray Flowers

The Dodgers gave Andre Ethier a 5-year, $85 million deal signaling that he is one of the building blocks of their offense. Then we get this. Manager Don Mattingly said the following about Ethier’s inability to hit left-handed pitching. “I can say all day long that I think he’s capable of hitting against lefties, but if the numbers keep telling us that maybe he can’t, then we have to go a different route,” he said. I’m not going to disagree with Mattingly because he’s right. Ethier is

One HR, Two HR, Reddick, Bluedick

Source: Razzball by grey@razzball.com (Grey Albright)

The .245 AVG is going to look ugly next March but 31 HRs and 80+ R/RBI has been nirvana for anyone (like Rudy) who plucked Josh Reddick off free agency in shallow leagues this year.  The power is real and, unlike the last A’s power hitter (Jack Cust), he is an above average fielder.   So the A’s now have 2/3 of a phallic OF foundation with Reddick and Yoenis.  Where is Lance Johnson Jr or Dick Pole Jr when you need them?  For 2013, I imagine the only flavor missing from his Chick-o-Stick is average, i.e., it may never be anything to write home about.  But if you’re writing home about Reddick’s average, you need new material.  Here’s hoping he doesn’t become Ryan Ludwick Part II.  Ryan Ludwick, “I