As you can see, Athlon has pegged Cincinnati to go 7-5 and finish 5th in the Big East. The Bearcats losing 3 conference games isn't really a surprise as the conference is pretty wide open this season. But the Bearcats host South Florida, Pitt and Rutgers, 3 teams picked ahead of them. The 2 non-conference losses seem a surprise. Virginia Tech being picked as a loss is not, but the second one is.
Yes, they pick UC to lose to Toledo. Tyler Garrett Smith pointed out on twitter that Toledo is ranked 79 and UC 56, so it's in the relam of possibility upset. If Athlon was really going to go out on a limb, they should have picked Fordham to pull the upset. No guts.